I like history – and the history of polling in particular. It’s an odd field – not many worry about getting all of the 1984 Wisconsin Primary polls.
But you find out stuff – stuff no one else really gets. So I was plowing through the recent national numbers: and was actually pretty stunned.
Hillary’s numbers on average are actually getting worse – the numbers in this chart are new lows. But Cruz is every bit as hated. And Trump.
Donald Trump’s worst number is the same as Richard Nixon’s just before he resigned
Of course the only candidate with a positive favorability rating is termed “unelectable”. But at the end of the day socialism is more popular than these candidates.
What is striking is how much more favorable the public’s perception is of Obama than Clinton. The gap is sizable.
So the poll historian had to ask: has anyone ever been this bad. Reagan: nope in the summer of 1980 he was 42-30 positive. McGovern? Good question. I went back last night – McGovern was down in September of ’72 68-23. He actually trailed among Democrats 44-41. That’s right, McGovern actually RALLIED in ’72 – and some of the reporting at the time noted his recovery.
Best I could do on favorability was a Gallup poll on October 16, and McGovern was still net positive (54-41, though they used a 5 point + or minus scale)
Since 1972, only 1 candidate had strongly negative favoribility numbers: Bill Clinton.
So here are Clinton’s numbers. They were bad – but there was a very high number without an opinion. I think it is fair say the public was not as decided about him as they are about Hillary. Nonetheless is does highlight something important: the conventions and the VP pick CAN have an enormous effect on the perception of a candidate. In Clinton’s case the swing was enormous.
I do think there is a very real shot for Clinton to reverse some of her problems with her pick and with a well run convention. Obama will be sure to speak – I have no idea about Sanders – in ’92 the Clinton people pretended Brown didn’t exist.
But the GOP? The pick will be important – but may well be a prisoner of the same right win forces that have brought the GOP to where they are. But if its Cruz (like I think it will be) he is a large enough of an unknown that I wouldn’t rule out a bounce.
Still, one looks at these numbers with amazement. There are three candidates whose numbers are just plain flat terrible. And yet the system has effectively worked to prevent anyone else from winning.
This is not going to be a happy electorate.
