And update on state polling:
So there has been a 5 point swing in the 5 day. Part of this is just better polling for Clinton:
PA +*8 (3 point swing from ’12, implies 6.85 lead national lead)
MN +6 (-1.5, implies national lead of 2)
FL tied, (-.87, implies national lead of 3)
NC tied (+2, implies national lead of 5.85)
The NV and MI polling wasn’t as good, but in general the polling shows good reason to believe in a CLinton lead.
But one thing bothered me: the amount of volatility is way higher here than in 2012. So I went back and checked:
last 5 days: 7
- 5 days prior to 9/19/2012: 41
- 5 days prior to 9/19/2008: 32
There are just fewer state polls this cycle. So we actually know less than in previous cycles.
Today
NH, Monmouth Clinton +9, was 7 in ’12, implies 5.6 point lead
WI, Marquette, Clinton +2, was 7 in ‘2 inplies a Trump lead of 1.2
There is no better pollster that Marquette. If Wisconsin is really a 2 point race, and Michigan is in play as well then Trump has expanded what is in play.
