About to work legal proection.

This is it:
 photo 5faylast_zpsekxmzv0y.gif

The national numbers look better than the state numbers, which say this is close.

A volatile election for sure:
> photo trend_zpsh2nmyzpo.gif

The national numbers look better late.  As I thought they would.
 photo national_zps8pdgzdtl.gif

Pretty good agreement.  I still think the third party breaks late for Clinton.  But this looks like a 4 point race.

The cheat sheet.  The big change is New Hampshire, which looks safer – though it is largely a function on one poll.

And Florida is still Florida.  I think the EV numbers look good.  One thing to note: a 2 point lead in Presidential elections is about 94% likely to hold.  IN other words Trumps chances are very low – in my simulation he is at 6% – and I introduce a national error from polling back to 1968.

 photo cheatlast_zpsgxqvqtnf.gif

This is last.  I could never square the red state performance by Clinton with the national polls.  I still can’t/  Maybe its because red states break GOP, and as result the margin is overstated.

But dammit this worked in 2012.  And it shows a much larger lead.
 photo projection_zps2mwllvki.gif

0 0 vote
Article Rating