About to work legal proection.
This is it:
The national numbers look better than the state numbers, which say this is close.
A volatile election for sure:
The national numbers look better late. As I thought they would.
Pretty good agreement. I still think the third party breaks late for Clinton. But this looks like a 4 point race.
The cheat sheet. The big change is New Hampshire, which looks safer – though it is largely a function on one poll.
And Florida is still Florida. I think the EV numbers look good. One thing to note: a 2 point lead in Presidential elections is about 94% likely to hold. IN other words Trumps chances are very low – in my simulation he is at 6% – and I introduce a national error from polling back to 1968.
This is last. I could never square the red state performance by Clinton with the national polls. I still can’t/ Maybe its because red states break GOP, and as result the margin is overstated.
But dammit this worked in 2012. And it shows a much larger lead.