So what the hell:
What is in thus far is:
Sedgwick: Thompson won 62-37. In 2016 Trump won Sedgewick 56-37. This is all early vote: and after posting here in 2016 about Florida beware.
Barver – 1 precinct in, and no EV based on raw vote.
Trump won 83-13, this one precinct has it 63-35 for the Republican.
But good numbers.
SOS numbers
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/barber.html
Politico 2016 numbers
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/kansas/
8:56
Precinct 607 in Wichita: Clinton 57%, Thompson 85%.
Edwards: 9/15, 74-24 GOP, was 79-15 Trump
9:03
Why margin is more important than %, in Edwards T netted 700. With 9/15 in Estes has netted only 222
2 precincts in Sedgwick besides EV. Thompson up 20%. Needs to win by 10 to be close. But a lot of the County total is EV – so this will close. But how much?
9:11 – CD wide it is 55-43 Thompson. But closing
9:23
Estes rural numbers equal or better than Orman’s in Edwards, Pawnee, Comanche, Kingman (Estes +6), Cowley, Butler. But turnout looks down.
State is 53-45.
9:34 – if you compare the race to the 2014 Senate race, in the rural counties Estes is outperforming Roberts’ numbers in 3 of 4 counties completed.
9:51
8 rural counties have completed. Estes is running ahead of Robert’s numbers in 2014. The big message out of this: we still have big problems in rural areas.
The largest county is still out, but it would take a miracle.
So more math at 10:21
Sedgewick is still out, and as I show, if Thompson can hold the margin here he has a shot. But I suspect the remaining precincts are not as friendly.
You can spin this many ways, but the core Dem problem in rural areas hasn’t gone away This is close to a re-run of the 2014 Senate race.
