From the Guardian, a good summary:
From the Guardian, and I swear I have heard of another election with similar swings…. pic.twitter.com/i0EWiNz8Zl
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 9, 2017
So I predicted before the election 329-249. The actual result was 318-261. I missed the collapse of the SNP, but in general averaging the polls and then using the swing against the 2015 results worked well.
Which is not so good because the same analysis for the House suggests retaking it is unlikely. But that is a different election….
Another update:
Updated estimate . pic.twitter.com/3CSzoTSJQl
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 9, 2017
It is the same thing as the 2016 Election here in reverse. Get this. WOW. That was just the betting markets, which look like they were wrong.
WOW!!!! https://t.co/SmM1x5S5rn
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 9, 2017
I would note BBC has updated their estimate to 322-251. Close. https://t.co/OtaiKVqEyD
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 9, 2017
Mindblowing.
If it holds:
May is out
The SNP has collasped
And Corbyn has completed the biggest political history by FAR. My post below is based on a 7% popular vote loss. It is likely closer to 3.
And averaging polls doesn't work again…, and the models blow up (though I was close)https:/t.co/efnquD1y4T@gelliottmorris @DemFromCT pic.twitter.com/iWFi5mwNcS
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 8, 2017
A review of the polling.
Extrapolating the pop vote: the best polls were the most pro-labour, and far removed from the average. @DemFromCT @ForecasterEnten pic.twitter.com/kV7hBnp8En
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 8, 2017
This is not as good as the exit poll for labour in the races thus far.
Results so far:
Seats:
Lab: 4
Con: 1% change:
Lab: +6.6
Con: +9.8
UKIP: -12.6— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 8, 2017
7:22
BBC cumulative swing, after 9 seats. Conservatives +8, labour +9. That projects to 342 to 241.
