Harry Eaten of CNN argues that the Republicans are about to absolutely thrash the Democrats in the midterm elections, and it will be far worse than the polls suggest.
Most polls you’re looking at right now are likely underestimating Republicans’ position heading into the midterm election cycle. It’s not that the polls are “wrong.” Rather, it’s that most polls at this point are asking all registered voters who they’re going to vote for in November, when it’s likely only a distinct subset of voters who will cast a ballot.
The voters who will actually turn out for the fall election are likely going to be disproportionately Republican based on current polling data and history.
On the other hand, David Siders of Politico points to the infighting and dysfunction in the Wisconsin Republican Party, and wonders if the GOP’s enormous advantage will actually materialize. It could be that too many conservative voters stay home either because they don’t believe the elections will be fair or because they’re angry with their candidates for not doing enough to make the elections fair.
It’s an unusual level of dysfunction for a state party that not so long ago was regarded as a model for conservatism nationally. And it may have disastrous implications for the party in the fall of what otherwise looks like a favorable year for Republicans across the electoral map, undercutting fundraising and turnout efforts in the GOP’s bid to reelect Sen. Ron Johnson and to unseat the state’s Democratic governor, Tony Evers…
…The upheaval in Wisconsin is, in part, a reflection of primary politics that are unusually contentious nearly everywhere this year. And it’s an expression of near-universal anger among rank-and-file Republicans about Donald Trump’s defeat in 2020.
This puts the Democrats in an unusual and mostly unenviable position. The saner the establishment Republicans act, the more the Republican base will be disinclined to vote. That’s seems like a win-win, except that sane Republicans are going to lose in primary elections. If we think today’s GOP is frightening, just wait until we see their eventual slates of contenders for office. The Republicans should win if big if they’re united, and they’ll only be united if the establishment is cast out by the base before the general election. In other words, losing is going be worse in the end than it appears now.
It’s really this desire for survival and unity that’s pushing so many establishment Republicans to cave to the insanity, and that capitulation will bring the worst of all worlds.
Meanwhile, it appears that our Presidents Day gift will be the launch of Trump’s social media app, Truth Social, which will become available in the Apple App Store on Monday. So, our long national nightmare of being constantly subjected to Trump’s toxic commentary is set to resume. Today is our last day of peace.
There are countless wildcards, including the resumption of the Cold War or even the outbreak of World War Three, which could greatly influence the midterm elections, but it’s more certain that Trump’s legal woes will play a huge role. He must be exposed and marginalized as aggressively as possible, and every effort to hold him accountable must be made before voters go to the polls.
If he emerges as the triumphant and unquestioned leader of an ascendant Republican Party, we’re done as a country.