There’s evidence is support of either party exceeding expectations in the upcoming midterms, which is why I’m a little confused that seemingly every reputable or semi-reputable prognosticator is saying the tide is turning the Republicans’ way. It could be armageddon.
"The new WSJ survey shows white suburban women (20% of the electorate) favor Republicans for Congress by 15 points, moving 27 pct points away from Dems since August poll."
God help us if this is true. https://t.co/6FLvAFtte7
— Martin Longman (@BooMan23) November 2, 2022
But the Democrats are noting that they have their usual early voting advantage, and that many of the better pollsters are showing some good, or at least modestly encouraging, results in many key races.
What has me worried more than anything else is just the general trend of the polling. If there’s late movement, it doesn’t appear to be favoring the Democrats. The likely voter models seem to pretty consistently look better for the Republicans than the registered voter numbers, which indicates a possible differential in turnout enthusiasm. Relatedly, early youth turnout is down, although they strongly prefer the Democrats and say they’re going to vote. On the other hand, young voters really don’t like the job Joe Biden is doing.
Also troubling, issue polling is pretty emphatic that inflation is a bigger driver of voter preference than abortion, democracy or any other factor, especially among independents. Relentless crime messaging by the GOP is probably having an impact, too.
Yet, to be truthful, while I’m prepared for a possibly fatal blow to our country next Tuesday, the available evidence isn’t so one-sided that I feel safe predicting it. More likely than not is a reasonable guess, but outlets like Axios aren’t justified in saying, “just about everything is breaking in Republicans’ favor.” In some places, like Nevada, it seems like the Republicans peeked last week and the movement is currently more toward the Democrats. There’s also a lot of junk polling, and the preponderance of it seems to be produced by Republican-aligned outfits.
However you feel about it, most of the really crucial races look very tight, which means we could be seeing some late calls and even some recounts. That means all the usual election strategies still apply, and it’s possible that knocking a few doors or making a few calls or dragging a few adult children to the polls could make a difference in some races. So, rather than making yourself crazy, it’s best to keep active.
