2005, 2006, 2008 Electoral & Campaign News, Notes & Analysis for 7/8 to 7/16

I’m going to try and write more of my own analysis in these campaign news compilation diaries. Campaign news (2005, 2006, and 2008), election laws, voting issues, etc. are covered. Items via a variety of sources (i.e. The Note, National Journal, etc.), diaries at DKos, or found by me through Google News.  Unless otherwise noted, opinions in links aren’t mine (nor do I necessarily endorse them). I try to separate my personal comments from the news, but I didn’t always make it as clear as I could. I’m still trying to work that out.

Rove’s Supporters
It’s time to get the rest of the Congressional Republicans on the record.

Democratic Party Branding, Electoral Issues, Party News, Shifts in Voting Pref, etc.

2005

OH-2 Less than a month to go!

November
VA

NYC Mayor

  • NYC  Mayoral Update, by LarryinNYC
  • (WakeupCall) A New York Daily News poll shows NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) defeating all possible Dem foes in an ’05 general mayoral matchup, including Fernando Ferrer (50%-36%) and Virginia Fields (53%-32%).
  • NYC Boot Bloomberg

NJ

Detroit Mayor
* Hendricks Lead Big, by RandyMI

State & Local Races; State/Regional News, Analysis & Organizing

House of Representatives 2006

General, Regional

AZ-05 Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)
* Larry King to run against JD Hayworth in AZ-5

CA-50 Rep. Duke Cunningham (R)

CT-02 Rep. Rob Simmons (R)
* CT-2 Watch (Rob Simmons)

CT-04 Rep. Chris Shays (R)
* CT4 Shays Watch

CT-05 Rep. Nancy Johnson (R)

FL-21 Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)
* Frank J. Gonzalez (D) for US Rep. FL21

FL-22 Rep. Clay Shaw (R)
* Democratic challenger State Sen. Ron Klein has the most CoH of any House challenger thus far.

IL-06 Open seat currently held by Henry Hyde.

IL-08 Rep. Melissa Bean (D)
* Rep. Melissa Bean for Congress

MN-01 Rep. Guknecht (R)
* Tim Walz for MN-1

MN-02 Rep. John Kline (R)

NJ-07 Rep. Mike Ferguson (R)
* NJ-7 Mike Ferguson

OH-15 Rep. Deborah Pryce (R)

PA-06 Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)

  • Hotline: “Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) announced today that he will travel to PA for a listening session with PA 06 candidate Lois Murphy on 7/16. After the session, the 2nd Feingold has held outside of WI, he will meet with various Philadelphia area elected officials and activists during the trip. Feingold: “I am committed to the effort of building the Democratic Party throughout America and I look forward to the opportunity to assist Lois Murphy’s efforts” (release, 7/14).”
  • As PA-6 goes, so goes the country?

PA-07 Rep. Curt Weldon (R)
* Paul Scoles for Congress (PA-7)

PA-16
* Byron Miller 2006 Congress PA-16

SC-03

TX-22 Rep. Tom DeLay (R)

VA-02 Rep. Thelma Drake (R)
* Rematch in VA-2: David Ashe (D) declares for 2006, by Clark04 This is Ed Shrock’s old district.

VA-11 Rep. Tom Davis (R)
* Andrew Hurst for Congress

WI-05 Rep. Sensenbrenner (R)

WV-02 Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R)
* Mike Callaghan for WV-2

Senate 2006

Roll Call’s Duran writes, the NRSC’s “recent attack on the legislative record” of Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) “begs the question of how to objectively measure a House Member’s effectiveness.” A comparison with other Class of ’90 House Reps still serving “shows that no one looks like a legislative lion” under the NRSC’s criterion. And of the 9 Reps who ran for SEN in ’04, 4 “had passed no bills,” including now-Sens. David Vitter (R-LA) and Johnny Isakson (R-GA).

Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl (R)
* (Hotline roundup): “The DSCC called on Sen. Jon Kyl (R) to “return money raised” at a 4/29 fundraiser hosted by WH dep. CoS Karl Rove. Rove was the “featured attraction” at a $500/person Phoenix event that “brought in” at least $200K for Kyl (Arizona Republic, 6/13). The event also featured “top business leaders” including AZ Cardinals VP Michael Bidwill, America West Airlines VP C.A. Howlett, and Phoenix Suns pres. Jerry Colangelo (Phoenix Business Journal, 7/12).”
Maryland Open seat currently held by Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D)

  • I don’t know if Mfume’s allegations are true or not, but those scandals and ethical problems are real and are problems created by Mfume himself.  (WakeupCall) Kweisi Mfume (D) said that Dem “operatives” were trying to block his MD SEN bid (Baltimore Sun). And that “political pundits and the so-called experts” sought to bolster Rep. Ben Cardin’s (D) bid (Washington Post).
  • Dems said MD Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) should cancel fundraiser featuring Rove
  • Rep. Chris Van Hollen will not run. This leaves Kweisi Mfume and Ben Cardin to battle for the Democratic nomination.

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)
* Jane Abraham (Spencer’s wife) won’t challenge Stabenow. There are three Republicans who have already entered the race. Click the link for more.

Minnesota Open Seat currently held by Sen. Mark Dayton (D)
* I want to support Amy Klobuchar for US Senate, by Boppy

Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R)

Montana Sen. Conrad Burns (R)

New Jersey Sen. Jon Corzine (D)
* On succeeding Corzine if Corzine becomes governor, Acting Gov. Richard Codey said that he’d think about it.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D)
* No Republican besides Rudy Giuliani would have a shot of defeating Clinton in 2006 says Stu Rothenberg.

North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
* Sen. Kent Conrad for US Senate

Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R)

Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R)

Tennessee Open seat currently held by Sen. Cat Killer (R).
* Harold Ford, Jr. for Senate

Virginia Sen. George Allen (R)
* teacherken has some info. Sounds reasonable and probable to me.  A lot does hinge on 2005, and IA about its effect on this race and who gets in to try and unseat George Allen.

Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell (D)

Governor 2006

* SUSA Approve/Disapprove for all 50 governors.

California Arnold (R)

Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell (R)

Florida Open Seat currently held by Gov. Jeb Bush (R)
* (WakeupCall) CFO Tom Gallagher (R) returned $1K in contributions from Penthouse that he received on 6/30 for his FL GOV campaign (Orlando Sentinel).

Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
* Cathy Cox for Governor

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D)
* (WakeupCall) Potential GOV hopeful/IL state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R) “accused a top party leader” of “character assassination” for “rehashing” his ’94 DUI (Chicago Sun-Times).

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) will not be running for re-election.
* IA Agricultural Secretary Patty Judge (D) to run for Governor

Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R)

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R)
* Blogger Interview of Deval Patrick, Democratic candidate for Governor, by Frederick Clarkson

Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D)

Ohio Gov. Bob Taft (R)

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D)
* (WakeupCall) A Quinnipiac poll shows that among regis. voters, PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) leads all possible GOP opponents in the ’06 PA GOV race, including ex-LG Bil Scranton (47%-37%), ex-Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann (48%-36%) and state Sen. Jeff Piccola (51-28%) (release).

South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R)
* (Hotline) “Since announcing he would run 3 weeks ago, Florence Mayor Frank Willis (D) has raised $200K, “nowhere near” the $3M Gov. Mark Sanford (R) has “piled up.” Fundraising will be a major concern for Willis and state Sen. Tommy Moore (D). Neither is well known outside their communities, and they “not only have to fund a primary campaign,” but one must also face Sanford’s “well-bankrolled campaign.””

Pres 2008

  • Both Edwards and Kerry are paying staff to work for local candidates in NH. I can’t explain it, but stuff like this makes me want someone new even more.
  • Westhill/Hotline poll shows that 86% of Americans agree that women are tough enough to be President About the same number expressed a willingness to cast a ballot for a female candidate for president.
  • GOPers in MI want to bar indies and Dems from voting in the GOP presidential primary, which could hurt McCain’s chances (should McCain decide to run.)
  • Travels that happened this past week or are coming up: Bayh in NH, Warner in AZ, all governors in Iowa, Brownback in SC, Feingold in PA (see PA-06 item in HoR section).
  • Bayh says battleground will be in the midwest. Bayh names OH, WI, MO, and IA. Well, it’s been the case for the last couple of election cycles that many of the battlegrounds were in the Midwest, so this isn’t some fantastic insight from Bayh. I don’t see that changing much, but certain states in the West will hopefully go from light pink to purple and purple to light blue in 2008.
  • National Governors Association gathering in Iowa. Potential 08 candidates get to test message in a state with the first caucuses.
  • SUSA Approve/Disapprove for all 50 governors. The approve/disapprove for potential presidential contenders. Pataki, Schweitzer, Bredesen, Sanford and Easley aren’t included here (though you can click through for the numbers). Pataki (despite a recent NYT article) would never win the GOP nod and Schweitzer and Easley have expressed no interest (but have managed to generate some minor buzz). Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has a 58% approval rating and 38% disapproval rating. Florida Governor Jeb Bush has a 52% approval and 44% disapproval. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has a 54% approval and 38% disapproval. Mitt Romney has a 47% approval and 46% disapproval. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson 53% approval and 41% disapproval. Virginia Governor Mark Warner has a 63% approval and 25% disapproval. This is just one poll, but Warner has got the best approvals/disapprovals of all the gubernatorial potentials for 08.
  • I’ll throw in this news for the Schweitzer lovers. On a Schweitzer in 08 campaign:

DNC advisor Steve McMahon: “The disadvantage to any governor from any small state is…can he put together the money, the organization and the political support to compete” with DC based candidates “who have much of that in place already?” Another potential problem “would be time on the ground in the states that host the early contests.” Dem strategist Chris Lehane: “It’s a huge leap to go from being the governor of Montana” to a pres. campaign. “On the other hand… He could be the Jimmy Carter” of ’08 (Roll Call, 7/12).

Bayh (D)

Brownback (R)
* He’s going to be spending some quality time in SC, which is basically a big “I’m running for the Republican nomination for POTUS” sign.

Clinton (D)

Gore (D)
* Gore Dinner Announces His Re-Emergence The dinner being held in TN raises money for 2006 Democratic candidate.

Huckabee (R)
* This columnist says Huckabee is in a better position to run for the White House than Clinton was.

Richardson (D)
* Richardson urges local and state governments to adopt Kyoto treaty

Romney (R)

Tancredo (R)
* Tancredo barnstormed Iowa. His immigration rhetoric fired up the GOP base. Republicans running for President in 2008 won’t be able to run away from the issue of Tancredo runs.  

Warner (D)

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Links of Interest:

Pease post in the replies of official Democratic candidate websites (esp. those for candidates who will be in tough races come 2005 or 2006) that you know of.  Thanks!

Consider Making a Donation to Democratic Candidates

Donate strategically or based on who you agree with more. Early money is always helpful. Not only does it allow the campaign to get advertising out there earlier, but it also helps the campaign plan expenditures.  Many campaigns end up with money leftover, because so much is donated in the final weeks of the campaign.  They didn’t know they were going to get so much money, and didn’t plan accordingly.  Keep in mind that TV ads are locked in about a week before the day of the election, so ad production ceases around then.  Purchases for ad time tends to happen months or weeks earlier.  Campaigns need flexibility as well.  The best ways for getting the message out to voters are different in different states.  In addition, early money (esp. in House races) helps attract money from DCCC, which has limited resources.  Early money can also send a message to a Republican incumbent.  He/she may not be able to campaign elsewhere if he/she has to deal with a challenge (however minor) at home.
Electoral Politics and Official & Unofficial Democratic Party Campaign Websites and Blogs Look at the categories in the beginning, and go to the section with campaign sites. Sites are listed by state. They are mixed in with blogs focused on the politics in a state or region.

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