2005, 2006, 2008 Electoral & Campaign News, Notes & Analysis for 7/8 to 7/16

• MyDD: Anti-immigration backlash in conservative pipes?
• Generic Congressional polls IA that it reflects the voting population which doesn’t necessarily translate into seats changing parties or the make-up of Congress.  After all, the 44 Democrats and 1 Independent represent more people than the 55 Republicans in the Senate do.
• Is it the cities, stupid?
• County Democratic Party Website Project, by ttagaris
• The History of the DNC Chair – 1989-Present, by v2aggie2
• Washington Times says that census projections favor Republicans
• Economic populism and campaigns. This one goes against the CW around the center-left blogosphere.
• DonkeyRising on Hispanic electorate

OH-2 Less than a month to go!

• Big Weekend in Ohio and Some Action Items, byttagaris
• What a Difference a Day Makes (Re: Paul Hackett), by ttagaris
• This is Our Moment: Paul Hackett in OH-02, by MrLiberal
• MyDD roundup of Paul Hackett information
• Paul Hackett for Congress (OH-02)
• OH-2 blog has full-coverage
• Grow Ohio From the Ground Up
• Ohio Democratic Party blog
• Ohio Progressive Alliance

November
VA

• Copied from The Hotline: “The Center for Individual Freedom (CFIF) started running radio ads in Norfolk and Roanoke 3 weeks ago which attack LG Tim Kaine (D) for his pro-gun control and anti-death penalty stances. Ex-AG Jerry Kilgore (R) has been making many of the same arguments against Kaine that the CFIF has been making, leading some to believe that the campaign and the CFIF are connected. CFIF VP-Public Affairs Marshall Manson: “Any ads we do here have nothing to do with the governor’s race. We’re not implying an endorsement of any candidate. We’re not implying any opposition to any candidate.” Kaine spokesperson Delacey Skinner: “I think it’s pretty clear that there is a connection. For this organization to suddenly produce an ad campaign exactly along the talking points of the Kilgore Campaign is no coincidence” (Nuckols, Norfolk Virginia-Pilot, 7/10).”
• Rasmussen Poll: Kilgore leads Kaine by 6 points
• Kaine/Byrne/Deeds Summer Kickoff Rally Kicks Ass, by kaineforgovernor
• VA’s Contested Delegate Races, by sndeak
• Tim Kaine for VA Governor 05
• Raise Kaine for VA Gov in 2005
• Citizen Kaine Blog

NYC Mayor

• NYC  Mayoral Update, by LarryinNYC
• (WakeupCall) A New York Daily News poll shows NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) defeating all possible Dem foes in an ’05 general mayoral matchup, including Fernando Ferrer (50%-36%) and Virginia Fields (53%-32%).
• NYC Boot Bloomberg

NJ

• Rasmussen poll has Corzine at 50%, Forrester at 38%
• NYT: Why Wait for Labor Day? Candidates for Governor in New Jersey Set Torrid Pace Corzine has run a lot of early ads in the very expensive Philly market that reaches into south and central Jersey. They’re decent ads. Nothing spectacular, but very professional.
• Corzine for Governor

Detroit Mayor
* Hendricks Lead Big, by RandyMI

• Norm Coleman’s jackass existence comes to light. He owes Rove a lot for his Senate seat. Are the MN Dems on this?
• Report from the MD Democratic Party Chair
• KY Republican Party Chairman indicted. Any word on the state of KY Democratic Party?  They should be able to capitalize on this.
• Local Progressive Blog Rings
• Michigan Politics: The Week in Review, by Dump Terry McAuliffe Posted on Saturdays every week. Very informative.
• Colorado Political RoundUps, by Ralph Posted everyday, Mondays to Fridays. Very informative.

• GOP: Caught on Tape
• Tom DeLay’s House of Scandal
• Jack Abramoff and Friends
• Currently, 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, 1 Independnet, and 1 vacant seat (a lean-GOP district in Ohio. Special election in July 2005.)

General, Regional

• The Closest 04 Races: Where We Stand, by AnthonySF
• Indiana Republican reps that need strong challengers. Some of these may not flip in 2006, but running twice could make them flip by 2008.
• DCCC raise $12 million in the second quarter. It’s the best yet since campaign finance reform. NCCC surely has more CoH though.

AZ-05 Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)
* Larry King to run against JD Hayworth in AZ-5

CA-50 Rep. Duke Cunningham (R)

• Cunningham won’t seek re-election May he have a merry time in jail. [/snark]
• Cunningham faces primary challenge from businessman George Schwartzman
• Target the Corrupt Republican Campaign: Duke Cunningham, by mole333
• Francine Busby (D) is running against him.

CT-02 Rep. Rob Simmons (R)
* CT-2 Watch (Rob Simmons)

CT-04 Rep. Chris Shays (R)
* CT4 Shays Watch

CT-05 Rep. Nancy Johnson (R)

• CT-5 Keeping watch on Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT5) and her silence on DeLay.
• CT-5 Nancy Johnson Watch

FL-21 Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)
* Frank J. Gonzalez (D) for US Rep. FL21

FL-22 Rep. Clay Shaw (R)
* Democratic challenger State Sen. Ron Klein has the most CoH of any House challenger thus far.

IL-06 Open seat currently held by Henry Hyde.

• Roskam default GOP nominee, by sakitume
• Christine Cegelis (IL06)

IL-08 Rep. Melissa Bean (D)
* Rep. Melissa Bean for Congress

MN-01 Rep. Guknecht (R)
* Tim Walz for MN-1

MN-02 Rep. John Kline (R)

• Rowley says no to professional campaign consultants I do wish she’d at least get someone in the advertising world to do ads and campaign literature for her, but I admire her for taking this stand.
• Coleen Rowley (D) for MN-2

NJ-07 Rep. Mike Ferguson (R)
* NJ-7 Mike Ferguson

OH-15 Rep. Deborah Pryce (R)

• Mark Losey on Rove and Rep. Pryce
• OH15 – Mark Losey For Congress, by Mark Losey for Congress
• Mark Losey for Congress OH15

PA-06 Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)

• Hotline: “Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) announced today that he will travel to PA for a listening session with PA 06 candidate Lois Murphy on 7/16. After the session, the 2nd Feingold has held outside of WI, he will meet with various Philadelphia area elected officials and activists during the trip. Feingold: “I am committed to the effort of building the Democratic Party throughout America and I look forward to the opportunity to assist Lois Murphy’s efforts” (release, 7/14).”
• As PA-6 goes, so goes the country?

PA-07 Rep. Curt Weldon (R)
* Paul Scoles for Congress (PA-7)

PA-16
* Byron Miller 2006 Congress PA-16

SC-03

• SC 3rd: Democrat Running Against Gresham Barrett, by withasigh
• Lee Ballenger (D) website

TX-22 Rep. Tom DeLay (R)

• Nick Lampson has raised more than $500k for his campaign
• Nick Lampson for TX-22 official campaign site
• Drop the Hammer on DeLay
• Daily DeLay
• LCV’s Tom’s Tainted Team

VA-02 Rep. Thelma Drake (R)
* Rematch in VA-2: David Ashe (D) declares for 2006, by Clark04 This is Ed Shrock’s old district.

VA-11 Rep. Tom Davis (R)
* Andrew Hurst for Congress

WI-05 Rep. Sensenbrenner (R)

• Bryan Kennedy for Congress
• WI-5: Sensenbrenner Watch

WV-02 Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R)
* Mike Callaghan for WV-2

• Senate Democrats crushing Republicans in fundraising
• Filibuster deal helps DSCC crush NSCC in fundraising?
• maxpalmer will try to profile every US Senator. Two Senators at a time this summer.
• Candidate Fundraising and Analysis, by jj32 Read for the numbers, not necessarily for the analysis.
• Roll Call tidbit as summarized by The Hotline:

Roll Call’s Duran writes, the NRSC’s “recent attack on the legislative record” of Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) “begs the question of how to objectively measure a House Member’s effectiveness.” A comparison with other Class of ’90 House Reps still serving “shows that no one looks like a legislative lion” under the NRSC’s criterion. And of the 9 Reps who ran for SEN in ’04, 4 “had passed no bills,” including now-Sens. David Vitter (R-LA) and Johnny Isakson (R-GA).

Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl (R)
* (Hotline roundup): “The DSCC called on Sen. Jon Kyl (R) to “return money raised” at a 4/29 fundraiser hosted by WH dep. CoS Karl Rove. Rove was the “featured attraction” at a $500/person Phoenix event that “brought in” at least $200K for Kyl (Arizona Republic, 6/13). The event also featured “top business leaders” including AZ Cardinals VP Michael Bidwill, America West Airlines VP C.A. Howlett, and Phoenix Suns pres. Jerry Colangelo (Phoenix Business Journal, 7/12).”
Maryland Open seat currently held by Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D)

• I don’t know if Mfume’s allegations are true or not, but those scandals and ethical problems are real and are problems created by Mfume himself.  (WakeupCall) Kweisi Mfume (D) said that Dem “operatives” were trying to block his MD SEN bid (Baltimore Sun). And that “political pundits and the so-called experts” sought to bolster Rep. Ben Cardin’s (D) bid (Washington Post).
• Dems said MD Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) should cancel fundraiser featuring Rove
• Rep. Chris Van Hollen will not run. This leaves Kweisi Mfume and Ben Cardin to battle for the Democratic nomination.

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)
* Jane Abraham (Spencer’s wife) won’t challenge Stabenow. There are three Republicans who have already entered the race. Click the link for more.

Minnesota Open Seat currently held by Sen. Mark Dayton (D)
* I want to support Amy Klobuchar for US Senate, by Boppy

Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R)

• Talent fundraising deemed impressive
• DSCC want McCaskill to challenge Talent. Schumer, Lincoln and Salazar put the pressure on her recently.

Montana Sen. Conrad Burns (R)

• Conrad Burn’s Big Gift to Fox News, by mcjoan
• 4th Dem Announces Challenge. They are former state Rep. Paul Richards, attorney and state Auditor John Morrison, of Helena; farmer and state Senate President Jon Tester, of Big Sandy; and Internet consultant Clint Wilkes, of Bozeman.
• Jon Tester for US Senate
• John Morrison for US Senate

New Jersey Sen. Jon Corzine (D)
* On succeeding Corzine if Corzine becomes governor, Acting Gov. Richard Codey said that he’d think about it.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D)
* No Republican besides Rudy Giuliani would have a shot of defeating Clinton in 2006 says Stu Rothenberg.

North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
* Sen. Kent Conrad for US Senate

Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R)

• Fundraising totals, by acbonin
• VIDEO: Victims of Boston Catholic church abuse attack Santorum
• (WakeupCall) A Quinnipiac poll shows PA Treas. Bob Casey (D) leading Sen. Rick Santorum (R) among regis. PA voters 50%-39% in the ’06 SEN race (release).
• Boston article slams Santorum
• PA Sen. SantorumWatch
• PA Sen. $antorum Watch
• Spreading Santorum
• Bob Casey, Jr. for US Senate (PA)
• Dr. Chuck Pennacchio for US Senate PA

Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R)

• Matt Brown for US Senate
• Sheldon Whitehouse for US Senate

Tennessee Open seat currently held by Sen. Cat Killer (R).
* Harold Ford, Jr. for Senate

Virginia Sen. George Allen (R)
* teacherken has some info. Sounds reasonable and probable to me.  A lot does hinge on 2005, and IA about its effect on this race and who gets in to try and unseat George Allen.

Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell (D)

• Dino Rossi says no to a run against Cantwell. Could challenge Gregoire in a few years for the governor’s office.
• Maria Cantwell for US Senate

* SUSA Approve/Disapprove for all 50 governors.

California Arnold (R)

• Arnold cancels conflict of interest contract
• CA: Arnold Schwarzenegger Watch
• CA: Stop Arnold
• St. Treasurer Phil Angelides for Gov.

Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell (R)

• Blogger interview with Mayor John DeStefano
• Dan Malloy, Stamford Mayor running for CT Governor in ’06
• John DeStefano, Mayor of New Haven, running for CT Governor in ’06
• Susan Bysiewicz, CT Sec of State, running for CT Governor in ’06

Florida Open Seat currently held by Gov. Jeb Bush (R)
* (WakeupCall) CFO Tom Gallagher (R) returned $1K in contributions from Penthouse that he received on 6/30 for his FL GOV campaign (Orlando Sentinel).

Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
* Cathy Cox for Governor

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D)
* (WakeupCall) Potential GOV hopeful/IL state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R) “accused a top party leader” of “character assassination” for “rehashing” his ’94 DUI (Chicago Sun-Times).

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) will not be running for re-election.
* IA Agricultural Secretary Patty Judge (D) to run for Governor

Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R)

• Abramoff Scandal tags Maryland’s Gov. Ehrlich(R), by dengre
• Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley for Governor

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R)
* Blogger Interview of Deval Patrick, Democratic candidate for Governor, by Frederick Clarkson

Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D)

• WSJ Attacks MI Governor, And It Ain’t Pretty, by Dump Terry McAuliffe
• Granholm leading deVos, by fergusonforcongress

Ohio Gov. Bob Taft (R)

• Former Rep. John Kasich (R) is being urged to run. There’s a 25% to 30% chance that he will run.
• Ted Strickland for Gov
• Mike Coleman for Ohio Gov.

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D)
* (WakeupCall) A Quinnipiac poll shows that among regis. voters, PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) leads all possible GOP opponents in the ’06 PA GOV race, including ex-LG Bil Scranton (47%-37%), ex-Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann (48%-36%) and state Sen. Jeff Piccola (51-28%) (release).

South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R)
* (Hotline) “Since announcing he would run 3 weeks ago, Florence Mayor Frank Willis (D) has raised $200K, “nowhere near” the $3M Gov. Mark Sanford (R) has “piled up.” Fundraising will be a major concern for Willis and state Sen. Tommy Moore (D). Neither is well known outside their communities, and they “not only have to fund a primary campaign,” but one must also face Sanford’s “well-bankrolled campaign.””

• Both Edwards and Kerry are paying staff to work for local candidates in NH. I can’t explain it, but stuff like this makes me want someone new even more.
• Westhill/Hotline poll shows that 86% of Americans agree that women are tough enough to be President About the same number expressed a willingness to cast a ballot for a female candidate for president.
• GOPers in MI want to bar indies and Dems from voting in the GOP presidential primary, which could hurt McCain’s chances (should McCain decide to run.)
• Travels that happened this past week or are coming up: Bayh in NH, Warner in AZ, all governors in Iowa, Brownback in SC, Feingold in PA (see PA-06 item in HoR section).
• Bayh says battleground will be in the midwest. Bayh names OH, WI, MO, and IA. Well, it’s been the case for the last couple of election cycles that many of the battlegrounds were in the Midwest, so this isn’t some fantastic insight from Bayh. I don’t see that changing much, but certain states in the West will hopefully go from light pink to purple and purple to light blue in 2008.
• National Governors Association gathering in Iowa. Potential 08 candidates get to test message in a state with the first caucuses.
• SUSA Approve/Disapprove for all 50 governors. The approve/disapprove for potential presidential contenders. Pataki, Schweitzer, Bredesen, Sanford and Easley aren’t included here (though you can click through for the numbers). Pataki (despite a recent NYT article) would never win the GOP nod and Schweitzer and Easley have expressed no interest (but have managed to generate some minor buzz). Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has a 58% approval rating and 38% disapproval rating. Florida Governor Jeb Bush has a 52% approval and 44% disapproval. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has a 54% approval and 38% disapproval. Mitt Romney has a 47% approval and 46% disapproval. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson 53% approval and 41% disapproval. Virginia Governor Mark Warner has a 63% approval and 25% disapproval. This is just one poll, but Warner has got the best approvals/disapprovals of all the gubernatorial potentials for 08.
• I’ll throw in this news for the Schweitzer lovers. On a Schweitzer in 08 campaign:

DNC advisor Steve McMahon: “The disadvantage to any governor from any small state is…can he put together the money, the organization and the political support to compete” with DC based candidates “who have much of that in place already?” Another potential problem “would be time on the ground in the states that host the early contests.” Dem strategist Chris Lehane: “It’s a huge leap to go from being the governor of Montana” to a pres. campaign. “On the other hand… He could be the Jimmy Carter” of ’08 (Roll Call, 7/12).

Bayh (D)

• Well, he sounded like a Presidential candidate on his visit to NH. link
• But some say, that wasn’t a good thing. Bayh looks presidential, until opening his mouth. The columnist called him Plastic Man. Ouch. Any word on the leanings of the writer?

Brownback (R)
* He’s going to be spending some quality time in SC, which is basically a big “I’m running for the Republican nomination for POTUS” sign.

Clinton (D)

• The Washington Monthly’s Carl M. Cannon: Why not Hillary? She Can win the White House.
• The Washington Monthly’s Amy Sullivan: Hillary in 2008? Not so fast.
• The Evolution of Hillary Clinton

Gore (D)
* Gore Dinner Announces His Re-Emergence The dinner being held in TN raises money for 2006 Democratic candidate.

Huckabee (R)
* This columnist says Huckabee is in a better position to run for the White House than Clinton was.

Richardson (D)
* Richardson urges local and state governments to adopt Kyoto treaty

Romney (R)

• Romney has a head start in Iowa. Seems as though he’s been planning and laying the groundwork for a long time.
• Romney courting House conservatives. The piece refers to him as a “presidential contender.” Contender my ass. He’s more wishy-washy than the Republicans ever accused Kerry of being.

Tancredo (R)
* Tancredo barnstormed Iowa. His immigration rhetoric fired up the GOP base. Republicans running for President in 2008 won’t be able to run away from the issue of Tancredo runs.  

Warner (D)

• Warner gets heavy praise for de-politicizing college board appointments. There’s some “man of his word” praise from a Republican.
• Seeks to emulate Carter, Clinton in the way they said that domestic executive experience can translate into foreign policy and national security competency. Warner could make up the difference should he get the nomination by picking a tough on foreign policy and/or national security running mate and putting together a strong team for foreign policy and national security.