Three new major polls out this week spell serious trouble for President Bush, and are very compelling in their consistency. All three show the president’s approval ratings falling below 40% and all three show him at an all-time low.
Associated Press-Ipsos Reed (10/31-11/2): 37% approval; 59% disapproval (Approval rating down 14-points from a year ago)
ABC/Washington Post (10/30-11-2): 39% approval; 60% disapproval (approval rating down 11-points from a year ago).
CBS (10/30-11/1): 35% approval; 57% disapproval (approval rating down down 14-points from a year ago).
Virtually all the polls are unanimous in revealing an astonishing free-fall for President Bush and declining approval ratings for Republicans in general. Recent polls gaging which party voters prefer in Congress all favor the Democrats by varying margins (Democracy Corps: Dems up by 9-points; CNN/USA Today: Dems up by 7-points); Diageo/Hotline Poll: Dems up by 9-points; George Washington University Battleground Poll: Dems up by 6-points; NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Dems up by 9-points)
Earlier today, Booman linked to the Washington Post article describing their new poll just out today. The Washington Post also links to the full questionnaire along with extensive tracking. An in-depth examination of that data is simply staggering, and given the consistency of all the major poll trends recently, it is probably fair to assume that the Post trends accurately project the direction the country is heading in. The ABC/Washington Post poll was conducted between October 31st and November 2nd, 2005 based with a telephone sample of 1,202 randomly selected adults nationwide.
Bush’s job-approval rating is at an all-time low of 39%, down 53-points from his all time high of 92% in the wake of 9/11. Only 20% strongly approve, down 56-points from his all-time high of 76%.
Conversely, 60% now disapprove, up 1000% from his all-time low of 6%. The intensity of the disapproval is demonstrated by the fact that 47% “strongly disapprove” compared to only 20% who “strongly approve.”
64% now disapprove of Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq (an all-time high) versus only 36% who approve (an all-time low),a 28-point spread in disapprove versus approve. Again, the intensity of feeling is demonstrated by the fact that 51% “strongly disapprove” versus only 20% who “strongly approve.” The month after we invaded Iraq, 75% approved versus only 22% who disapproved. There has been a 91-point reversal in approval of the war.
Bush’s handling of “The situation with gasoline prices” meets with 68% disapproval versus only 26% approval.
For the first time, more disapprove (51%) of the Bush’s handling of “The US campaign against terrorism” than approve (48%), and while the nearly half still approve, this is a huge turn-around from the 92% approval rating Bush once held in this area, arguably his greatest strength. It suggests that his frequent references to the “war on terror” in his speeches are no longer resonating with a majority of the American public.
61% disapprove of Bush’s handling of the economy versus only 36% who approve. As recently as January 2004 51% approved versus 47% who disapproved. The pendulum has swung by 29 points toward disapproval in the intervening twenty-one months.
61% disapprove of Bush’s handling of health care versus 34% who approve. These numbers have not changed much. Bush has never scored well in this area where his all-time high approval rating was only 40%.
68% think the country is on the “wrong track,” not only an all-time high for this president, but the highest number since 70% reported feeling that way in June of 1996. Only 30% feel the country is heading in the “right direction,” the lowest recorded response since August of 1996. The last time this question was asked during the Clinton presidency in February 1999, 55% thought the country was heading in the “right direction” versus 41% who thought we were on the “wrong track.” The current numbers represent a staggering 52-point reversal for Bush versus Clinton.
Only 34% (an all-time low) feel Bush “understands the problems of people like you” versus 66% (an all-time high) who do not. This represents a 56-point reversal for Bush versus how Americans felt in January 2002.
In another area that was previously a major strength for Bush, he is also showing severe erosion. 47% (an all-time low) feel he is “a strong leader” versus 53% (an all-time high) who feel he is not, a huge 57-point reversal from his peak in July 2002.
The country is equally devided at 49% on whether Bush “can be trusted in a crisis,” but back in April of 2001, 65% felt he could be trusted versus only 32% who did not, a 32-point reversal.
Back in July 2002 71% felt Bush was “honest and trustworthy,” compared to only 26% who felt he was not. The latest poll reveals that only 40% now believe he is “honest and trustworthy,” versus 58% who do not, a 63-point reversal.
Only 40% feel Bush “shares your values” versus 58% who do not. This question was first asked only seventeen months ago in May 2004, but back then the country was fairly split with 49% believing Bush shared their values versus 50% who did not. There has been a 17-point negative shift since then.
Asked: “how much confidence you, yourself, have in the Bush Administration: a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?” 63% responded “some , or very little” versus only 29% who responded “a great deal, or quite a lot.” This is the first time this question was asked since Bush assumed the presidency, but he and the Republicans can hardly be encouraged by the response.
In another first-time question” “Would you say your confidence in the Bush administration lately has been (increasing), (decreasing) or has it remained the same?” only 2% responded “increasing” versus 49% responding “decreasing.”
Only 8% of respondents are “enthusiastic” about Bush’s policies (an all-time low and down from 17% in October 2004), versus 25% who are “angry” about them (an all-time high and up from 12% in December 2003).
41% believe “Conservative religious groups” have “too much influence on the Bush administration” versus only 28% who felt that way in December 2002.
For the first time during the Bush administration, a majority of the public (54%) has “little or no confidence” in the government’s ability to solve problems (46% remain confident). This is a 40-point reversal versus January 2002.
67% rate “Bush’s handling of ethics in government” “fair to poor” versus only 32% who rate it “good to excellent.” Again, intensity of feeling on this question is demonstrated by 38% who answer “poor” versus only 7% who answer “excellent.”
The companion question: “Do you think the overall level of ethics and honesty in the federal government has risen, fallen or stayed the same with Bush as president?” reveals 43% believe it has “fallen” versus 24% who answered that way about President Bill Clinton. 17% believed it had risen during both the Bush and Clinton administrations.
Iraq is nothing but bad news for Bush. By a 60% (all-time high) to 39% (all-time low) margin, respondents do not believe the war was worth fighting. By contrast, support for the first Gulf war never dipped below 66%.
73% (all-time high) believe the number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq are “unacceptable” versus only 25% (all-time low) who feel they are “acceptable.”
For the first time a majority (52% to 46%) feel the war in Iraq “has not contributed to the long-term security of the United States.” This represents a 33-point reversal since July 2003.
47% now favor decreasing our forces in Iraq versus only 15% who favor increasing them. 38% of those favoring decreasing our forces favor an immediate withdrawal (an all-time high).
55% (an all-time high) now believe the Bush administration “Intentionally misled the American public” in making its case for war with Iraq versus only 44% who believe it “Told the American public what it believed to be true” (an all-time low). There has been a 24-point shift in public opinion away from believing the administration in the last fourteen months.
The nomination of Samuel A. Alito to the Supreme Court gets lukewarm support with 49% believing he should be confirmed. That compares with 59% who believed John Roberts should be confirmed when he was first nominated (his support dropped to 55%) and 63% who believed Clarence Thomas should be confirmed when he was first nominated (his support dropped to 59%).
Plamegate is proving to be a major thorn in the side of the Bush administration. 70% believe Lewis “Scooter” Libby is guilty of a “serious crime.” 54% believe the indictment of Libby was based on the “facts of the case” versus only 31% who suspect “political motivations.”
26% believe Karl Rove did something “illegal” and another 23% believe he did something “unethical” but “not illegal.” Only 26% think Rove did nothing wrong. 59% believe Rove should resign.
45% believe Vice President Cheney is guilty of unethical and/or illegal activity versus 41% who do not.
33% Believe President Bush did something unethical and/or illegal versus 54% who do not.
52% believe Plamegate is symptomatic of “broader problems” versus 43% who believe it is an “isolated incident.”
What has to be truly frightening for the Bush administration and the Republicans is that the trends all point toward even further erosion of public confidence between now and the 2006 mid-term elections. We should be in for an interesting year.
