Chris Bowers is kind of freaking out because he thinks, possibly correctly, that Super Tuesday will result in a basic tie in pledged delegates between Clinton and Obama. The problem with that is that it means one of the candidates would have to win roughly 75% of the remaining pledged delegates to avoid a brokered convention where the Super Delegates will decide the winner of the nomination. The only way to avoid such a spectacle is if one of the candidates drops out.
Let me address a few points:
1. There are roughly 800 Superdelegates that will represent roughly 20% of the delegates voting at the convention. Superdelegates are elected officeholders and party officials that can vote for whomever they want. Currently, 184 are pledged to Clinton and 95 are pledged to Obama. In other words, over 500 Superdelegates have made no official commitment to either candidate. So, can we please stop saying that Hillary Clinton has some big advantage in Superdelegates? She doesn’t.
2. It’s not the end of democracy if the Superdelegates determine the nominee. Maybe some citizens will be disillusioned to learn that the Democratic Party is, you know, a party with officers and stuff. Parties do not determine their victors based on the popular vote anymore than the Electoral College does. Rather than calling this the end of democracy, we might just call it a lesson on civics.
3. This might all be a little less confusing if the Democratic Party didn’t do strange things like letting non-party members vote in their primaries. If people understood that they are members of a party voting for their party representatives (delegates) rather than independent citizens voting for a candidate, maybe people would take more interest in the nature and nurturing of the party.
4. Whoever has the momentum at the end of nominating process will win over the majority of those 500 undecided Superdelegates and the process will work itself out. But, if not…
5. Even a disputed brokered convention won’t be the end of the world. Yes, McCain will have six months to run unopposed, but he won’t have anyone to run against. He also won’t be able to make any news and no one will care what he has to say. And, secondly, as long as Obama wins, which he almost certainly will if he makes it all the way to the convention, the party will heal up quickly. Only an brokered convention that results in Clinton winning will crush enough hopes to make Hubert Humphrey blush. The likelihood of that happening, while it cannot be totally dismissed, is remote. But there could be riots!!
