The latest polls show Obama trailing in Pennsylvania by six (Quinnipiac), nine (Rasmussen), and fourteen points (SurveyUSA). That leaves Pollster.com with an average of: Clinton 48.2% Obama 42.5%. Over at CQ Politics their district by district analysis shows Clinton emerging with a net three delegates. She would gain more for winning the popular vote, but they project a small net gain of delegates. It’s hard for me to tell whether Obama is behind by six or behind by fourteen because in this area (the Southeast) he is doing very well. In fact, I project that CQ Politics is wrong about District 1 (South and central Philadelphia; Chester) and District 7 (Suburban Philadelphia — most of Delaware County). I think Obama will get a 5-2 split in the First and win the Seventh, earning him a 4-3 edge. And, while CQ Politics projects a 7-2 split in the Second District, a 8-1 split is not completely out of the question.
On the other hand, CQ Politics projects that Clinton will not reach the 62.5% needed to turn any of the four delegate districts into 3-1 splits in her favor. If she really is ahead statewide by nine-fourteen points, it must be because she is doing significantly better than 62.5% in some of these smaller districts. And not that it matters for the delegate splits, but I believe Obama, not Clinton, will win District 5 (North central — State College) and District Six (Southeast — parts of Berks and Chester counties, Philadelphia suburbs).
My observation on the race is that Obama’s momentum seems to have stalled, but he isn’t weakening. He seems poised to lose by about ten points based on the polls, but he could close it to a deadheat with a good debate performance tomorrow night. I think he will outperform the polls by about three points because of high turnout in the Philly area and a superior groundgame. He could do even better than three points. But unless I see polls consistently showing him within six points, I will not be predicting victory here.
