The term Imperial Overstretch was coined by the historian Paul Kennedy in trying to explain the decline of the Roman and the British Empires.What the term means is that in the intial stages of empire building, the victories against weaker opponents come easy and the natural instinct is to expand ones hegemony over more and more opponents.The British Empire,not content with its dominance over India, managed to extend its dominion over Southeast Asia,Africa and the Middle East.As this process went on, the Empire found itself enmeshed in brushfire wars in many regions consuming more and more of its resources to the point diminishing returns set in.Rivals like Germany and Japan started eying the big power and wanted a piece of the Empire for themselves.WWII was reflection of that rivalry.
Our Empire builders who went into Iraq with fantasies of a cakewalk are running into the reality based world
even as they celebrate their macho achievements.The price of oil has reached $140 a barrel and by some predictions could reach $200 a barrel by the end of 2008.
If that prediction comes true,the Empire will reach the point of overstretch on an accelerated schedule.Not merely is the United States dependent on oil for its domestic needs its military forces are to a great extent dependent on oil too.In fact, the US military is by far the largest consumer of petroleum based fuels.This means that the cost of wars, even to an enormously productive power like the US, will become prohibitive and will prove to be a drain on its resources.An economic collapse cannot be ruled out under these circumstances.
It is at these historic junctures that rivals to our power will emerge.I see a coalition of powers along the lines of BRICs (Brazil,Russia,India and China) will see an opening and begin to assert themselves.Whether that will be sufficient for the US to shed its dreams of world hegemony,only time will tell.But,I think the bells are tolling for the demise of hegemony.
