Every once in a while it’s instructive to get a picture of what we’re fighting for when we do political advocacy. So, I put together my best guess of who will be running what in the U.S. Senate at the beginning of the next Congress. Before you look at it, here are my assumptions.
1. Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah will be ousted in at the state party convention in favor of Mike Lee.
2. John McCain will survive his primary and, whether Blanche Lincoln and Arlen Specter survive or not, the Republicans will win those seats.
3. Harry Reid will lose to Sue Lowden and Dick Durbin (not Chuck Schumer) will become Majority Leader.
4. Rand Paul and Marco Rubio will win both the primaries and the general election.
5. Elaine Marshall and Lee Fisher will win both the primaries and the general election.
6. Andrew Romanoff will defeat Michael Bennet in the primary and go on to prevail in the general.
7. Jerry Moran will prevail in the Kansas primary and go on to win the general election.
8. David Vitter will survive.
9. Despite current polls, Paul Hodes, Alexi Giannoulias, and Robin Carnahan will be elected.
10. Michael Castle will win in Delaware, John Hoeven will win in North Dakota, Richard Blumenthal will win in Connecticut and Dan Coats will win in Indiana.
Committee assignments are based on best-guess with a lot of informed opinion. For example, all new senators are ranked by the seniority they would have. Jeff Sessions is supposed to exchange the ranking chair on Judiciary for the ranking chair on Budget. If Lincoln loses, Stabenow would probably get Agriculture, etc.
I didn’t bother trying to predict who would take over open seats on the coveted Appropriations and Finance Committees, but it’s highly unlikely that those seats will go to any freshman. Although, the Republicans will have five seats to fill on Appropriations, so you never know.
Kohl, Herb (WI), Chairman
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Casey, Robert P. (PA)
McCaskill, Claire (MO)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Udall, Mark (CO)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (NY)
Franken, Al (MN)
Hodes, Paul (NH)
Giannoulias, Alexi (IL)
Fisher, Lee (OH)
Corker, Bob (TN), Ranking Member
Shelby, Richard C. (AL)
Collins, Susan M. (ME)
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA)
Toomey, Pat (PA)
Rubio, Marco (FL)
Paul, Rand (KY)
AGRICULTURE
Stabenow, Debbie (MI), Chairman
Harkin, Tom (IA)
Leahy, Patrick J. (VT)
Conrad, Kent (ND)
Baucus, Max (MT)
Nelson, Ben (NE)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Casey, Robert P. (PA)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (NY)
Giannoulias, Alexi, (IL)
Marshall, Elaine (NC)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA), Ranking Member
Lugar, Richard G. (IN)
Cochran, Thad (MS)
McConnell, Mitch (KY)
Roberts, Pat (KS)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
Grassley, Chuck (IA)
Thune, John (SD)
Cornyn, John (TX)
APPROPRIATIONS
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI), Chairman
Byrd, Robert C. (WV)
Leahy, Patrick J. (VT)
Harkin, Tom (IA)
Mikulski, Barbara A. (MD)
Kohl, Herb (WI)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Feinstein, Dianne (CA)
Durbin, Richard J. (IL)
Johnson, Tim (SD)
Landrieu, Mary L. (LA)
Reed, Jack (RI)
Lautenberg, Frank R. (NJ)
Nelson, Ben (NE)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
Tester, Jon (MT)
+2
Cochran, Thad (MS), Ranking Member
McConnell, Mitch (KY)
Shelby, Richard C. (AL)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (TX)
Alexander, Lamar (TN)
Collins, Susan M. (ME)
Murkowski, Lisa (AK)
+5
ARMED SERVICES
Levin, Carl (MI), Chairman
Byrd, Robert C. (WV)
Lieberman, Joseph I. (CT)
Reed, Jack (RI)
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Nelson, Ben (NE)
Webb, Jim (VA)
McCaskill, Claire (MO)
Udall, Mark (CO)
Hagan, Kay R. (NC)
Begich, Mark (AK)
Bingaman, Jeff (NM)
Giannoulias, Alexi (IL)
Fisher, Lee (OH)
Hodes, Paul (NH)
McCain, John (AZ), Ranking Member
Inhofe, James M. (OK)
Sessions, Jeff (AL)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Thune, John (SD)
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Brown, Scott P. (MA)
Burr, Richard (NC)
Vitter, David (LA)
Collins, Susan M. (ME)
Boozman, John (AR)
Rubio, Marco (FL)
BANKING
Johnson, Tim (SD), Chairman
Reed, Jack (RI)
Schumer, Charles E. (NY)
Menendez, Robert (NJ)
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Tester, Jon (MT)
Kohl, Herb (WI)
Warner, Mark R. (VA)
Merkley, Jeff (OR)
Marshall, Elaine (NC)
Carnahan, Robin (MO)
Romanoff, Andrew (CO)
Shelby, Richard C. (AL), Ranking Member
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Corker, Bob (TN)
DeMint, Jim (SC)
Vitter, David (LA)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (TX)
Castle, Michael (DE)
Toomey, Pat (PA)
Hoeven, John (ND)
BUDGET
Conrad, Kent (ND), Chairman
Murray, Patty (WA)
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Byrd, Robert C. (WV)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Stabenow, Debbie (MI)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Warner, Mark R. (VA)
Merkley, Jeff (OR)
Begich, Mark (AK)
Sessions, Jeff (AL), Ranking Member
Grassley, Chuck (IA)
Enzi, Michael B. (WY)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Ensign, John (NV)
Cornyn, John (TX)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Alexander, Lamar (TN)
Coats, Dan (IN)
Moran, Jerry (KS)
COMMERCE
Rockefeller, John D. (WV), Chairman
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI)
Kerry, John F. (MA)
Boxer, Barbara (CA)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Cantwell, Maria (WA)
Lautenberg, Frank R. (NJ)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
McCaskill, Claire (MO)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Udall, Tom (NM)
Warner, Mark R. (VA)
Begich, Mark (AK)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (TX), Ranking Member
Snowe, Olympia J. (ME)
Ensign, John (NV)
DeMint, Jim (SC)
Thune, John (SD)
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
Vitter, David (LA)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
Hoeven, John (ND)
Paul, Rand (KY)
Lee, Mike (UT)
ENERGY
Bingaman, Jeff (NM), Chairman
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Johnson, Tim (SD)
Landrieu, Mary L. (LA)
Cantwell, Maria (WA)
Menendez, Robert (NJ)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Stabenow, Debbie (MI)
Udall, Mark (CO)
Shaheen, Jeanne (NH)
Fisher, Lee (OH)
Carnahan, Robin (MO)
Marshall, Elaine (NC)
Murkowski, Lisa (AK), Ranking Member
Barrasso, John (WY)
Risch, James E. (ID)
McCain, John (AZ)
Sessions, Jeff (AL)
Corker, Bob (TN)
Toomey, Pat (PA)
Hoeven, John (ND)
Lowden, Sue (NV)
Lee, Mike (UT)
ENVIRONMENT
Boxer, Barbara (CA), Chairman
Baucus, Max (MT)
Carper, Thomas R. (DE)
Lautenberg, Frank R. (NJ)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Udall, Tom (NM)
Merkley, Jeff (OR)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (NY)
Inhofe, James M. (OK), Ranking Member
Vitter, David (LA)
Barrasso, John (WY)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Alexander, Lamar (TN)
Coats, Dan (IN)
Moran, Jerry (KS)
Paul, Rand (KY)
ETHICS
Pryor, Mark L. (AR), Chairman
Boxer, Barbara (CA)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Roberts, Pat (KS), Ranking Member
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
Risch, James E. (ID)
FINANCE
Baucus, Max (MT), Chairman
Rockefeller, John D. (WV)
Conrad, Kent (ND)
Bingaman, Jeff (NM)
Kerry, John F. (MA)
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Schumer, Charles E. (NY)
Stabenow, Debbie (MI)
Cantwell, Maria (WA)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Menendez, Robert (NJ)
Carper, Thomas R. (DE)
+1
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT), Ranking Member
Grassley, Chuck (IA)
Snowe, Olympia J. (ME)
Kyl, Jon (AZ)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Roberts, Pat (KS)
Ensign, John (NV)
Enzi, Michael B. (WY)
Cornyn, John (TX)
+1
FOREIGN RELATIONS
Kerry, John F. (MA), Chairman
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Boxer, Barbara (CA)
Menendez, Robert (NJ)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Casey, Robert P. (PA)
Webb, Jim (VA)
Shaheen, Jeanne (NH)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (NY)
Hodes, Paul (NH)
Carnahan, Robin (MO)
Lugar, Richard G. (IN), Ranking Member
Corker, Bob (TN)
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
Risch, James E. (ID)
DeMint, Jim (SC)
Barrasso, John (WY)
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Inhofe, James M. (OK)
HELP
Harkin, Tom (IA), Chairman
Mikulski, Barbara A. (MD)
Bingaman, Jeff (NM)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Reed, Jack (RI)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Casey, Robert P. (PA)
Hagan, Kay R. (NC)
Merkley, Jeff (OR)
Franken, Al (MN)
Romanoff, Andrew (CO)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Enzi, Michael B. (WY), Ranking Member
Alexander, Lamar (TN)
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
McCain, John (AZ)
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT)
Murkowski, Lisa (AK)
Coburn, Tom (OK)
Roberts, Pat (KS)
Boozman, John (AR)
Lowden, Sue (NV)
HOMELAND SECURITY
Lieberman, Joseph I. (CT), Chairman
Levin, Carl (MI)
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI)
Carper, Thomas R. (DE)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
Landrieu, Mary L. (LA)
McCaskill, Claire (MO)
Tester, Jon (MT)
Giannoulias, Alexi (IL)
Fisher, Lee (OH)
Collins, Susan M. (ME), Ranking Member
Coburn, Tom (OK)
Brown, Scott P. (MA)
McCain, John (AZ)
Ensign, John (NV)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Castle, Michael (DE)
INDIAN AFFAIRS
Cantwell, Maria (WA), Chairman
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI)
Conrad, Kent (ND)
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI)
Johnson, Tim (SD)
Tester, Jon (MT)
Udall, Tom (NM)
Franken, Al (MN)
Barrasso, John (WY), Ranking Member
McCain, John (AZ)
Murkowski, Lisa (AK)
Coburn, Tom (OK)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
INTELLIGENCE
Feinstein, Dianne (CA), Chairman
Rockefeller, John D. (WV)
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Mikulski, Barbara A. (MD)
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Durbin, Richard (IL) , Ex Officio
Levin, Carl (MI) , Ex Officio
Coburn, Tom (OK), Vice Chairman
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT)
Snowe, Olympia J. (ME)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA)
Risch, James E. (ID)
Castle, Michael (DE)
Moran, Jerry (KS)
McConnell, Mitch (KY), Ex Officio
McCain, John (AZ), Ex Officio
JUDICIARY
Leahy, Patrick J. (VT), Chairman
Kohl, Herb (WI)
Feinstein, Dianne (CA)
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Schumer, Charles E. (NY)
Durbin, Richard J. (IL)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Franken, Al (MN)
Marshall, Elaine (NC)
Grassley, Chuck (IA), Ranking Member
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT)
Sessions, Jeff (AL)
Kyl, Jon (AZ)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Cornyn, John (TX)
Coburn, Tom (OK)
Lowden, Sue (NV)
RULES
Schumer, Charles E. (NY), Chairman
Byrd, Robert C. (WV)
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI)
Feinstein, Dianne (CA)
Durbin, Richard J. (IL)
Nelson, Ben (NE)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
Udall, Tom (NM)
Warner, Mark R. (VA)
Romanoff, Andrew (CO)
Alexander, Lamar (TN), Ranking Member
McConnell, Mitch (KY)
Cochran, Thad (MS)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (TX)
Roberts, Pat (KS)
Ensign, John (NV)
Rubio, Marco (FL)
SMALL BUSINESS
Landrieu, Mary L. (LA), Chairman
Kerry, John F. (MA)
Levin, Carl (MI)
Harkin, Tom (IA)
Lieberman, Joseph I. (CT)
Cantwell, Maria (WA)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Shaheen, Jeanne (NH)
Hagan, Kay R. (NC)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Snowe, Olympia J. (ME), Ranking Member
Vitter, David (LA)
Thune, John (SD)
Enzi, Michael B. (WY)
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Risch, James E. (ID)
Lee, Mike (UT)
VETERAN’S AFFAIRS
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI), Chairman
Rockefeller, John D. (WV)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Webb, Jim (VA)
Tester, Jon (MT)
Begich, Mark (AK)
Hodes, Paul (NH)
Romanoff, Andrew (CO)
Isakson, Johnny (GA), Ranking Member
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
Brown, Scott (MA)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Coats, Dan (IN)
Just a few interesting notes.
In this scenario, Tom Coburn becomes the Ranking Member on the Intelligence Committee. Tim Johnson of South Dakota would become chair of the Banking Committee (currently chaired by Dodd). As mentioned above, Jeff Sessions would become Ranking Member of Budget, while Chuck Grassley would become Ranking Member of the Judiciary, and Orrin Hatch would assume that position on Finance. Maria Cantwell would take the gavel at Indian Affairs. Lamar Alexander would replace Bob Bennett as Ranking Member of Rules. The rest of the chairs and ranking members would remain the same.
These predictions are actually quite optimistic. I have the Republicans losing seats they currently hold in New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri. That helps offset the loss of Democrat-held seats in North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Indiana. It’s only a net loss of three seats, leaving the split as 54 Democrats, 44 Republicans, and 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats.
The addition of moderates John Hoeven and Michael Castle might add a touch of bipartisanship, but it would be offset by the addition of superradicals Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the Republican freshman class would also be a particularly nasty and reality-challenged bunch.
You tell me how you see things differently and how these changes will affect what gets done (or doesn’t) in Washington DC.
