An interesting thing happened last night in the Hawaiian special election to replace Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The winner wasn’t a surprise. Republican Charles Djou was favored because of the stupid election rules in Hawaii that eschew primaries in favor of a first past the post election with all candidates. Because the Dems had two strong candidates and the Republicans had only one, it was expected that Djou would win, and he did. The surprise was who came in second place.
In early May, the Democratic Establishment started trying to push the progressive Colleen Hanabusa out of the race in favor of Blue Dog Ed Case:
The White House and top Democratic officials are circulating a new, private poll to suggest that only one of two Democrats splitting votes in a tightly contested Hawaii special election has a chance of winning the race.
The White House and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee see former Rep. Ed Case as a stronger candidate than State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa in a race that has divided Democrats. Hanabusa has the support of much of the state’s establishment, including both senators and key labor unions.
“Our April 24 to 26 survey among 506 likely voters in Hawaii’s 1st CD special election shows Democrat Ed Case virtually tied with Republican Charles Djou, but leading on every dimension over Democrat Colleen Hanabusa,” pollster Paul Harstad wrote in a memo accompanying the DNC survey, both obtained by POLITICO…
…”It is clear from this data — as from all the public polling – that Ed Case is the best chance that our party has of holding on to that seat,” said a senior White House official. “Given where Hanabusa is in al of this research, one has to be concerned about what the likely out come is if the dynamic remains unchanged.”
When Hanabusa refused to drop out, the DCCC got huffy and ostentatiously announced they were pulling out of the race because it couldn’t be won. Well, they were right about the race being unwinnable, but they were wrong about who should have dropped out.
Colleen Hanabusa, the president of the state senate, took 30.8 percent of the vote while former Rep. Ed Case held 27.6 percent.
The DNC wasn’t alone in getting the polling wrong. For example, the race was polled a few days agp by ccAdvertising:
In the three-way race for Hawaii’s First Congressional District, Republican Charles Djou has pulled slightly ahead with 35.78% of the vote, while Democrats Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa have 31.03% and 17.67%, respectively.
Even a Daily Kos-sponsored poll from Mid-April showed Case with a slight advantage over Hanabusa. But, for some reason, all these pollsters failed to detect Hanabusa’s strength in the race. She had union support and the support of Sens. Inouye and Akaka. She was the choice of progressives. Maybe the fact the she’s a fourth generation Japanese-American and Ed Case is white had something to do with the polls being off. I don’t know.
In any case, this is a win for progressives. Charles Djou will represent Hawaii’s First District until January. But now that we have actual results, the White House and the DCCC can no longer argue that the Blue Dog is the stronger candidate. Hanabusa should get their support in the primary, and if she doesn’t then there is something wrong.
We need more progressives in Congress, not more Blue Dogs.
