Today’s Portland Press Herald has a good summary of the state of play in the race to succeed Olympia Snowe one day after her surprise announcement that she would not run for what would have been her fourth term representing Maine in the US Senate.
The race may have national implications for control of the Senate, and it represents one of the few solid opportunities for Democrats to flip a seat currently held by the GOP. In fact, given that:
- Mainers typically elect Senators for life (it’s been over 30 years since an incumbent Senator lost a reelection bid);
- George H. W. Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry Maine (in 1988); and,
- Tea Party Governor Paul LePage still has approval ratings under 50%;
Maine may now represent the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a Senate seat in this election cycle.
People “from away” (that’s everyone south and west of the Piscataqua River) should be aware that Maine’s politics are not binary—and haven’t been for quite some time. Since at least the late 1960s the electorate has consisted of several factions—none of which constitutes a majority by itself. Roughly speaking, these include:
- “Rockefeller Republicans” – fiscally conservative, socially moderate, temperamentally inclined towards centrism and compromise (think Snowe and Susan Collins, Maine’s junior senator).
- Libertarians – there’s a strong strain of “just-leave-me-alone” self-reliance throughout northern New England. Small-town and rural, culturally (at least) Protestant, these folks provided the energy and much of the leadership behind the Republican takeover of state government in 2010.
- Blue-collar Democrats – Maine is dotted with mill towns (mostly paper and textile). Culturally (at least) Roman Catholic, heavily Franco-American, socially conservative, these voters are usually supportive of labor unions and the social welfare state—and somewhat suspicious of “do-gooders”. (Think 2nd District Congressman Mike Michaud—a Blue Dog and part of Bart Stupak’s faction on health care reform.)
- “Back To The Landers” – Urban East Coast hippies and liberals who wanted to get away from the Big City in the 1960s and 70s…and stayed. Now they run businesses, teach at Maine’s colleges and universities and work in its social service agencies. (Think 1st District Congresswoman Chellie Pingree.)
- Northern Greater Boston – Symbolized by Amtrak’s revival of daily train service between Portland and Boston, over the past generation southern Maine has become increasingly connected to the sprawling, multi-state metropolis centered on Boston, MA. As a result, southern Maine has become increasingly more socially liberal and more economically prosperous than the rest of the state.
In addition, it’s a small state. That means, for example, a senator can promise to visit every high school in the state and keep that promise in a term. It also means that voters expect a senator who makes that kind of promise to keep it. It means that a political liberal usually has to be temperamentally moderate (think former Sen. Majority Leader George Mitchell) to win a statewide election.
Final note: Mainers are ticket-splitters. Twice in the last 40 years they’ve elected an Independent Governor (once with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House). In 2008, Susan Collins got re-elected with 61% of the vote while Barack Obama defeated John McCain 58-41. Results in one race are not predictive of results in another.
If you’ve got thoughts about Sen. Snowe’s decision or the race to succeed her, please add them in the comments section. Thanks.
Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/
