Nate Silver’s analysis today is modestly encouraging despite the fact that we really ought to be talking not about who will win, but about how big Obama’s victory will be. The first debate changed the fundamentals of the race is a way that is hard to understand. Perhaps it was simply the sight of both men on a stage together that added to Romney’s standing as a candidate. If it were as simple as Romney having a better night, we would have seen more snap-back after Biden demolished Ryan and Obama humiliated Romney in the next two debates. What we saw, instead, was a halt to Romney’s momentum and a very modest move in the Democrats’ direction. It looks like things have stabilized with Obama holding enough of a lead in the truly key swing states to hold on to a narrow Electoral College victory.
My suspicion is that the most important thing Romney did in the first debate is bring home the support of his base, particularly in the South, where he was regarded with some skepticism until he spewed all their favorite talking point lies in the first debate. That helped Romney improve his standing in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, and it gave him a popular vote boost in the south more generally. But it didn’t do enough to move him into the lead in the key Midwestern states or in Colorado and Nevada.
The debate tonight appears, therefore, to present much greater risk to the president than to Romney. It doesn’t look like Obama can change the dynamics much by winning the debate unless Romney does something titanically stupid. But Romney has shown the ability to make leaps and bounds off a debate victory. Most of that is probably already baked in the cake, but I believe he has more potential upside than the president simply because he is less well known and opinions about him are more fluid.
However, there are some states that are close enough in the polls that any minor change can create a different outcome. Florida and Virginia are both states where that appears to be true, and I’d argue the same about New Hampshire, Iowa, and even North Carolina.
Tonight’s debate presents more risk for Obama, but his advantage is that, if nothing changes he is going to win.
