The media, and Bernie Sanders supporters are anticipating a victory for Bernie tonight in the Wisconsin primary. Pundits are frothing at the mouth, spewing venom at the supposed fact that Hillary could be in trouble, and frustration growing in the Clinton camp that she can’t put away Sanders and concentrate on the general.
One big problem with that logic, math!!! Even if Bernie wins tonight, the vote is expected to be close, and in Sanders world, close doesn’t cut it. Despite blowout wins in Washington state, Hawaii and Alaska, the delegate dial has barely moved. After tonight’s results, Hillary is going to have close to 1800 delegates in her back pocket, to around 1100 for Sanders. Hillary needs around 30% of the remaining states delegates to get the nomination. Bernie needs close to 70%
After Wisconsin, delegate rich states like New York and Pennsylvania are on deck, where Hillary had huge leads, (Average of 20% in New York, and 25% in Pennsylvania), not to mention Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut on April 26th, West Virginia on May 10th, Kentucky on May 17th and the big kahuna, California on June 7th, where Hillary is leading.
So if Bernie wins tonight, he’ll celebrate, his supporters will cheer, the media make mountains out of molehills and continue pouring out numbers that in the end, really won’t matter much.
The only numbers that matters is 2383, and the reality is Bernie isn’t anywhere near that number.