Update: 11/1
ABC shows a Trump lead in 4 way, Clinton 1 point lead in 2 way. IBD shows 1 point Clinton lead in both.
The state polling, which contains a ton or right wing polling, is ambiguous, but does suggest tightening:
Virginia, Washinton Post, 10/27-30: Clinton +6, suggests movement
Michigan: Mitchell, Clinton +6, no movement in prior week.
NH – UNH, 10/26-30, Clinton +7 on 10/17 they should a 15 point lead
PA – Franklin and Marshall – Clinton +11, shows no tightening.
All these polls completed 10/30, and should include data consistent in Time with the ABC polling.
There is other polling from Remington and Emerson suggesting a path to a Trump win. I don’t believe either pollster, but the possibility cannot no longer be dismissed.
Right now this race looks far more like 2004 and 2012. And that should scare the shit out of everyone. I still see no real path for Trump, but the national polls are showing a third party collapse benefiting Trump that hasn’t shown up in the state polling.
So can we stop talking about fucking Utah? I still think this race breaks late for Clinton, and the early voting from Nevada and NC looks good.
But if you are writing about Utah right now you are clueless and I have difficulty taking you seriously.
Update: 10/31 at 8:34
No real evidence that the e-mail stuff has had an impact, The race was closing before that. No way to sugar coat the national numbers, which are pretty close. The state numbers, even from Gravis, still show no path for Trump. But it takes a while for the state numbers to catch up. The Florida polling, and the GA poll suggest GOP voters are coming home not unlike Dem voters came home for Dukakis in ’88.
So I am going to use this diary to keep track of the most recent polls. In many ways we are flying blind – there isn’t a huge release of data post 10/26 four days ago.
Before I post the numbers, I want to link to something I published in 2008 entitled “adventures in tracking polls” At the time I reviewed the history of Gallup tracking polls – which produced large swings that make no sense.
So I caution – what we have seen in ABC we have seen before in other cycles. Do not assume the large swings are real. I would much rather have this confirmed by state polling.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/8/590987/-
One other point – be careful to look for the dates – both length of the poll and last date.
So there really is no way to sugar coat this this morning. IBD and ABC have it as Clinton +1. Mourning Consult has it as Clinton +3.
So Here goes:
Mourning Consult – 10/29-30: Clinton +3 in both 2 and 4 way.
ABC – 10/25 – 28: Clinton +1 4 way, +3 2 way
ABC – 10/26 – 29 – Clinton +1 4 way, +2 2 way
IBD – 10/24 – 29: Clinton +2 4 way, +5 2 way
IBD – 10/25-31: Clinton +2 2 way, +1 4 way
These are VERY good pollsters. We have only 1 day of data post e-mail disclosure
Florida (25-27): Seina/NYT: Trump +4, Trump +3 2 way
This is the worst number I have seen in a while. The Siena polling is being done off the VAN – and should be much better at identifying likely voters. Recent early voting from Florida shows a jump in turnout in the panhandle – which is Trump land. Still may be an outlier.
PA: Morning Call (20-26) – Clinton +6
If the race has really closed in the last 5 days, this number may be a little dated. Nonetheless, if Trump is able to carry OH and Florida, then PA becomes the last hill Trump needs to climb. This is still a good lead
Emerson – they call only landlines, and as a result may miss the Dem vote. The dates are 25-26, which is when the race closed (if it did). A bad pollster, but in general these numbers do not show a path for Trump.
FL
PA +5
OH – tie
NV +6 (consistent with early voting numbers)
NC +3
MN (22=25) – SUSA – Clinton +10 – I like this number because it suggests little reason to worry about WI and MI. Still a little old.
Marist (Place holder – data to be released at 9)
Florida – (25-26) Clinton +1 4 way, tied 2 way
NC (25-26) Clinton +6 !!!
Alaska – Cranium 20-26 – Clinton +4 (that is fun)
Yougov, all 26-28, Internet Pollster but with a decent record
AZ Trump +2
NC Clinton +3
CO Clinton +3
PA Clinton +8
Bad colorado number. Still no path for Trump in that set. IF Clinton wins NC, VA and PA then even if Trump carries Fl, OH, AND CO it isn’t enough.
Maine” Clinton +11, 10/20-25. Really not that great of a number.
Gravis, 10/27, FL Clinton +1
Gravis, 10/25-26, NC, Clinton +2
GA – SUSA – 10/25/-27 – Trump +7. Evidence GOP voters are coming home?
From the Siena write up:
“Mrs. Clinton also had a challenge with black turnout. Voters who indicated on their voter registration form that they were black made up 12.7 percent of the likely electorate, down from 13.9 percent in 2012. Our North Carolina survey also showed the black share of the electorate dipping by about one point lower than 2012 levels. It’s a pattern that’s consistent with the initial early voting data, which shows lower black turnout than in 2012.”
I have worried a bit about black voter enthusiasm. Siena is the only pollster working off of voter registration lists. So what they are capturing here is unique.
