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Is Joe Biden the Best Candidate or the Worst?
Discussion
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It would make sense that Trump’s true base is 23 percent, which is even lower than the Alan Keyes Constant.
It’s hard to imagine what it would take for a substantial slice of that 43% of Trump’s 41% to change their minds. Will believe it when I see it.
Good summary. I’m 52 and supporting Bernie Sanders. We’ll see what the primary gives us. I’m not feeling too hopeful given how much is arrayed against my candidate of choice.
I’m genuinely interested to know why you don’t think having a heart attack in the middle of the campaign isn’t a disqualifying event.
Not a Sanders man but he bounced back well. Biden remains more feeble-seeming than Sanders. I’m astounded by how geriatric this election will likely be. But I can’t get excited about Buttigieg or any of the remaining younger candidates. If Yang were a realistic choice, maybe. Guy has some interesting ideas but he’s not realistically going anywhere.
Join the crowd. Right now, every Democratic candidate stands a better chance of losing the primary than winning it.
On the flip side, at least according to current polling (everyone old enough to remember Dukakis’ 17 point lead in the summer of ’88 cringes), every plausible Democratic nominee is ahead of Trump.
“every plausible Democratic nominee is ahead of Trump”
True in the national polls but not in the swing states, where it really matters. (See the front page nytimes article).
Booman (is it out of style to call you that?) does say, in passing, that “Biden’s advantage is that his appeal is strongest among the swingiest voters.” But you’re right, clearskies, that was the Times’s main point — and I have to admit, it thoroughly ruined my day. I don’t know why this, in all its ins and outs, wasn’t given more emphasis here. The Times also said that polls of this kind, one year out from the election, are rarely wrong. Of course, they were totally wrong in 2016,weren’t they? I do think Trump is a phenomenon never before… Read more »
They (State specific polls, especially Michigan) were wrong in 2016 but that’s why Nate added his special sauce to correct for it. I also noticed Michigan as an outlier in their impeachment inquiry poll, finding support weakest there compared to other neighboring states. The toplines are most important, but I think we can conclude women candidates are going to face significant hurdles and a 1-2 point handicap.
Very sobering article.
Biden’s numbers against Trump look good, but as you say in this post — and I’ve been arguing for over a year — you simply cannot nominate a candidate so thoroughly rejected by my generation and think you’ll be safe. Sanders is a gamble on this front too because older voters don’t like him, and they vote in substantially higher numbers than sub-45’s. The most important numbers in this survey are Trump’s toplines: 39-41 no matter who he faces, including hated Hillary Clinton. Biden might have some special sauce, but at best it’s worth 1-2 points. Bernie Sanders would be… Read more »
I think so too. Kerry was supposedly the safe choice against Bush. Hillary too. Safe choices don’t generate enough enthusiasm. This election is different and I think any of our candidates would have a chance. But my preference is Warren for a variety of reasons.
I try to keep my biases out of my analysis but it’s not always possible. I think we will know who is stronger when the voting actually happens. Not necessarily for who will win the primary by default then be considered “electable”, but I think we can get a general idea based on what their base of support consists of. There’s also evidence Dem primary voters are getting more liberal than their general election supporters, but they line up pretty well:
Kerry was the best choice in 2004. He outperformed the fundamentals in the election. What other Dem candidate would have done that? Dean? Don’t make me laugh.
I don’t personally believe Kerry wanted the job. He folded after those ads against him came out.,
“ I think any of our candidates……..” I’d think about that and then think some more. There needs to be a reason for people to vote and any pundit or elite person doesn’t have a clue what that is.
My points exactly (above). And I also prefer Warren. She’s doing extremely well in the primary race, but once you get out of that bubble, not so much. Although the one ray of hope revealed by the Times is that a lot of Biden Dems said they could imagine switching if they knew more about her. But remember, it comes down to the swing states.
With the Sienna/NYT numbers coming out, I feel vindicated and also defeated. Biden does have some sauce. It’s worth 1-2 points. Bernie is stronger than Warren because of sexism, and ideology isn’t particularly important. Some bleak shit right there. But racist whites want their racism.
Silver lining: toplines don’t get anywhere near 100%, and Trump’s numbers match his approval, suggesting he requires high third party vote in order to win.
Whoever the nominee is, I hope that everyone has the good sense to stifle their gripes and get to the dirty business of compromise, because that is how representative government works.
If Biden were energetic enough to really fight, I’d have no problem supporting him. In any case, perhaps sentiment against Trump is so strong that a soggy noodle would end up winning. But I have my doubts. Warren’s healthcare issues have me nervous about her, but she is at least getting out there, being present, and fighting.
A few months ago, I believed that Biden was the safe choice. I looked at those polls showing him beating Trump “like a drum” and had visions of winning an electoral college landslide with Ohio and North Carolina. After watching all the debates, I’ve come to the opposite conclusion. I won’t speculate on why, but Biden has come across to me as weak, meandering, and almost befuddled. This is already bad, and I don’t expect it to get better. If it gets worse (which it could easily do), it could be disastrous. And even if he does win, I don’t… Read more »
To me, it’s a weak field at the top. The best general election candidates, like Bennet and Bullock, are getting no traction. Also Insley before he dropped out.
As a white, straight, male in the 30-44 age range, Biden has limited appeal to me and most of the folks my age I know. Why? He is too retro with his attitudes toward women, and has nothing to offer us. More Obamacare? Great, except we know that we can do better. Maybe not all at once, but at least get the ball rolling there. Ocare was a much needed first step, which I am very thankful for. Tepid support for a Green New Deal? No thanks, I’d like to not fry. And trying to work across the aisle? No.… Read more »
One things is for sure, if Biden is the nominee, the first verbal stumble or seeming memory lapse he has, the media will begin flogging, non-stop, the narrative that he might be in the early stages of senility. You can damn well bet on that. I have severe misgivings about Biden, yet at the same time have that little twinge of comfort at the familiarity of Biden, and the osmosis effect of the Obama years. You do a very good job laying out the conflict so many of us have. I am one of those older white guys who should… Read more »
If we don’t get some of that “ bold, fucking change” we will have another Clinton type book on whatever the fuck happened,
First, there’s no such thing as a safe choice. The Republicans will go after whoever we nominate and they all have weaknesses. I think the best choice is Warren. She’s smart and she counter-punches. She’ll drive Trump insane by getting under his skin. There are voters who will be uncomfortable with any woman. She will be held to a higher standard but I believe she can cut it. The media will portray her as dangerously liberal but a lot of voters are up for change. In a dangerous world and a particularly scary election, she’s the one with whom I… Read more »
I agree and she even wants to change the game and actually help the people. Maybe she can get all those stay at homes in the Midwest to come out and vote this time rather than stay at home.
Trump looks right into the camera and lies. No shame. It’s gonna take someone with the ability to hang in there with the never ending lies and shade. I don’t see Joe as the one. I believe without an iota of proof that we need a candidate who offers people something. No more Clinton bullshit. We need to get people to the polls. There is nothing you can offer a rich person. They already have it all maybe even the small yacht. They likely don’t want you messing with their good thing anyway. So when the elite tell me Sanders… Read more »
Biden is like the Mueller Report. Warren is like Ukraine. I know which one caught my attention. I like Warren because however severe her plans may seem, she is also intelligent and experienced, and will happily negotiate to get half of what she wants if that’s what it takes. She’s done that before in the Senate. She is not a crazy lady.
Oh, neither the best nor the worst. The worst I leave to those absurd bizness/investment wzrds who have never held elective office but feel sure they should start at the very top–this is Trumpism is a more sane disguise. One needs gub’mint experience to be a high public servant. As for the best, at some point it may dawn on progressives that unless they unite, Uncle Joe and his woeful Bidenism (“There’s a lot of good Repubs out there!”) will end up being the nominee despite the majority of the Dem primary electorate rating him second best, at best. At… Read more »
I believe Biden polls well because of name recognition and his association with Obama. I think he’ll be a terrible campaigner.