Martin Longman is the web editor of the Washington Monthly.
He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. Before joining the Monthly, Martin was a county coordinator for ACORN/Project Vote and a political consultant. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
Those numbers are great for Biden…but they include polling from before Buttigieg, Klobuchar and O’Rourke endorsed him. How much did they weight any movement in Biden’s direction?
I don’t know that they weighted it in anyone’s direction. The weights would normally be to get a better model of the turnout than was produced by their pool of respondents alone.
I wonder how much of this is “the Obama effect.” (Quit a lot, is my morning-after guess.) By that I mean something like this: Biden hasn’t run a great, or even a very good, campaign. But he was Barack Obama’s unfailingly loyal and cheerful and competent vice-president for eight years. And despite the frustrations with Obama that are so visible online and among certain segments of the left wing of the Democratic coalition, he remains both the most successful Democratic politician in the lifetime of most Americans and overwhelmingly popular among Democratic voters. And, for an electorate battered by 3+… Read more »
It actually has confused me why so many Democrats are happy with Obama overall, and yet don’t think Biden would be a good president. I expect Biden to govern much more like Obama than as the caricature of a Evan Bayh Democrat in which he is so often portrayed. That’s a product of looking at his long Senate record, I know, but shouldn’t the fact that all the money went to people like Buttigieg rather than Biden tell you something?
Those numbers are great for Biden…but they include polling from before Buttigieg, Klobuchar and O’Rourke endorsed him. How much did they weight any movement in Biden’s direction?
I don’t know that they weighted it in anyone’s direction. The weights would normally be to get a better model of the turnout than was produced by their pool of respondents alone.
Biden did better than this…no offense. I certainly didn’t see Massachusetts and possibly Maine coming
Or Minnesota.
Or Texas, given that Sanders was supposed to have a lock on the Latinx communities.
Biden has done insanely well. I mean, I would have considered myself nuts to predict he’d do this well.
I wonder how much of this is “the Obama effect.” (Quit a lot, is my morning-after guess.) By that I mean something like this: Biden hasn’t run a great, or even a very good, campaign. But he was Barack Obama’s unfailingly loyal and cheerful and competent vice-president for eight years. And despite the frustrations with Obama that are so visible online and among certain segments of the left wing of the Democratic coalition, he remains both the most successful Democratic politician in the lifetime of most Americans and overwhelmingly popular among Democratic voters. And, for an electorate battered by 3+… Read more »
It actually has confused me why so many Democrats are happy with Obama overall, and yet don’t think Biden would be a good president. I expect Biden to govern much more like Obama than as the caricature of a Evan Bayh Democrat in which he is so often portrayed. That’s a product of looking at his long Senate record, I know, but shouldn’t the fact that all the money went to people like Buttigieg rather than Biden tell you something?