I am not surprised in the least to learn that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona has raised only 0.3 percent of her reelection money from small donors, but I have to say I am little shocked to see that Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has outraised her $3.7 to $2.1 million in the first quarter of the year. If there is one thing I assumed Sinema could succeed at, it’s raking in Big Money.
Now, the big news today is that Sinema is polling somewhere below chlamydia, although I have to note that the source is an internal Gallego poll, so her unpopularity may be somewhat exaggerated. The headline findings are sobering nonetheless. Let’s begin with her favorability numbers:
…27 percent of voters in the state view Sinema favorably and want her to run again, compared to 50 percent of Arizonans who view her unfavorably and 54 percent who say she shouldn’t run again.
This shows that she hasn’t compensated for alienating the Democratic voters who nominated her five years ago by picking up a commensurate amount of support from Republicans and independents. When you add in the fact that she hasn’t convinced the corporate titans she favors to put their chips on her line, this isn’t something she’s likely to fix. The three-way theoretical matchups look dismal, too.
In any likely three-way matchup among Sinema, Gallego and whatever Republican candidate wins their primary, Sinema appears to have virtually no chance of winning. If the GOP candidate is election denier Kari Lake, for example, the new PPP survey shows that Gallego would pull in 42 percent of the vote, Lake 35 percent, and Sinema just 14 percent. The numbers are similar if you plug Jim Lamon or Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in as the Republican candidate.
Again, these are internal Gallego polling numbers, and I take them with a grain of salt. At least for now, however, she looks like her independent bid might be more likely to keep the seat in Democratic hands than splitting the left and handing it to the Republicans.
That’s a lot of failure. It makes me happy.