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    Thanks for your comment. There are a couple of encouraging factors (for me) about this Democratic primary contest: 1 -…
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    • Me too! And there's reason for hope (and therefore, to continue working hard): Trump's approval ratings among registered voters are…
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    • Thanks for your comment. We agree that "anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 is very likely to vote for…
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    • We agree (I think) on Biden's weaknesses as a campaigner. I was just making the (at this point, largely theoretical)…
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    • Thanks for your thoughtful comment. Given the number of times NH has gone in a different direction, it's easy to…
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    • Here's the thing about Biden's strategy: as Martin says, it's not necessarily a bad strategy, especially for Obama's vice-president. Remind…
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    • Thanks for your comment. Just curious: why do you think Trump "seems to have an infinitely expanding base"? From everything…
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    • What, for you, would be "compelling support" for the argument that Trump is losing support?
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    • And Trump's approval rating in NH is terrible. He lost the state to Clinton by less than 1/2 a percentage…
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    • "Hope & Change" helped, but because elections tend to be referendums on the incumbents, what really helped Obama in 2008…
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    • I haven't seen the research, but broadly speaking, 3 million (disproportionately older, whiter, wealthier) Americans die each year; and 4…
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    • Short-term loss; long-term gain. One of the central insights of Gene Sharp's work (e.g., "From Dictatorship to Democracy") is that…
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    • To put the Southwest v. Midwest split more starkly: if Democrats win Texas and Arizona (49 electoral votes) that outweighs…
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    • Maybe. And I don't underestimate that. However, even within that narrow range of approval, the movement of 1-2% can make…
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    • We're probably at least 9 months away from the sweet spot for dropping a post analyzing what Trump has to…
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    • Thanks for this. I just want to echo the importance of your (Armando's?) final insight: negative campaigning is the most…
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    • Heck, even if Dems win control of the House, Senate and White House next year, they "still won't get much…
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    • As Adlai Stevenson said when campaigning against Eisenhower and a supporter yelled, "You have the support of every thinking American":…
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    • It's way too early to say, but there's a *chance* Trump's strategy could hurt Republicans in the Senate, too. Collins-ME,…
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    • And again, the ACA was what could get passed through a 60 vote Senate, not "the Obama administration('s)" preferred bill.…
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